A Technical Companion and Scenario Analysis Joel Sawat Selway Shorter version can be found at LatitudeTen .  Image generated by ChatGPT From Narrative Forecasts to Explicit Political Assumptions Most Thai election “forecasts” are not models in the statistical sense. They are narratives: extrapolations from recent polls, reputational judgments about parties, and informal assessments of candidate strength. Different analysts often disagree not because they see different data, b